Election 2024 Prediction: Update

The time to make a prediction is before, not after, the event happens, so I feel the need to write this short article today, and not three days from now. Previously, I had predicted a Trump victory, but I would like to change my answer from "Trump" to "I don't know; either Trump or Kamala." I had predicted that Trump would win because inflation would be the overwhelming issue of this election. Early polling data indicates that Kamala has an issue, whose significance I had not previously appreciated, namely, abortion, and that the abortion issue for Kamala is an equal but opposite answer to inflation as a pro-Trump issue. The abortion issue is causing women to go to the polls to vote for Kamala. Trump is banking on his voter outreach to young men to counter Kamala's appeal to younger women; however, the problem Trump has is that women have an issue, abortion, to motivate them to vote, but Trump's aimless, alienated young male voter lacks a signature issue for Trump to champion to cause him to get up off of his lazy, stoned ass and actually drag himself to the polls to vote for Trump. A feeling of masculine insecurity and masculine victimization is not, as such, a political issue, in the same sense that abortion is a political issue within a distinctly political categorization, despite the fact that such a feeling of masculine alienation might make alienated young men vote for Trump instead of Kamala if they were to vote at all. Laws that prohibit transgender identity are an issue, but Trump is not running on that issue, and, even if he did, this will not motivate a widespread vote for him among the alienated, anxiety-riddled, frustrated young male voters, who don't truly give a shit about trans people either for or against them, even if he did run on that issue. Inflation, too, is an issue that can cause anger and lead people to vote for Trump, but it is unlikely to be highly motivating to cause lazy people to go the polls if they would otherwise be inclined to stay home and not vote at all. In contrast, smart, college-educated young women have figured out that Trump would sign a federal national abortion ban, so they are highly motivated to go vote for Kamala. Thus, the 2024 election is a jump ball, a true 50/50 ball, which could go either way, and I choose not to predict one side in the event that the other wins and I look like an ignorant person.