Election 2024 Predictions: Trump Will Probably Win, And Here's Why
I recently learned of an interesting theory to predict the outcomes of presidential elections: that voters don't vote for the candidate, instead they vote for the party, but they don't vote for party along party loyalty lines, instead they vote for the party that they think will help them solve their current problems. According to this model, surprisingly, the candidate doesn't really matter, they are just a figurehead and a representative of the party and that party's broad principles and goals and abilities. And the basic idea is, when the economy is a problem, people vote Republican, because the Republicans will rein in spending and cut taxes, but when the economy is fine, people vote Democrat, because the Republicans won't let people have fun, but the Democrats will let people have fun, and when people have money all they want to do is have fun. There are ways for Democrats to win on the economy, but it is by means of, for example, as Bill Clinton did in the 199...