I recently learned of an interesting theory to predict the outcomes of presidential elections: that voters don't vote for the candidate, instead they vote for the party, but they don't vote for party along party loyalty lines, instead they vote for the party that they think will help them solve their current problems. According to this model, surprisingly, the candidate doesn't really matter, they are just a figurehead and a representative of the party and that party's broad principles and goals and abilities. And the basic idea is, when the economy is a problem, people vote Republican, because the Republicans will rein in spending and cut taxes, but when the economy is fine, people vote Democrat, because the Republicans won't let people have fun, but the Democrats will let people have fun, and when people have money all they want to do is have fun. There are ways for Democrats to win on the economy, but it is by means of, for example, as Bill Clinton did in the 1990s, being a "neoliberal," and to some extent even Obama was really a moderate liberal when it came to economic policy, he did Obamacare, which turned out to not be socialized medicine, and other than that he was pretty much bland and boring on economics. Hillary Clinton, unlike her husband Bill and Obama, was expected to be on the far Left based on policies she had advocated for during her husband's administration.
Based on this model, Donald Trump will win the election. The voters have not forgiven the Democrats for the Biden economy, they have not forgotten about Biden inflation (how could they when they feel it every day), and Kamala has done nothing to distance herself from Bidenomics, instead, in her recent interview on CNN, she embraced it. People hate Trump and people like Kamala, but, if this model which I described above is correct, that is not how voters think at the polls, instead, they will think that the Republican Party will fix the economy and the Democrat Party won't, and they will vote, not for Trump, but for the GOP by means of voting for Trump. The excitement surrounding Kamala is irrelevant, because, according to this model, the candidate is not what actually matters. If you vote for Trump, you aren't voting for Trump, you're voting for the GOP, and if you vote for Kamala, you aren't voting for Kamala, you're voting for the Democrats.
Bill Clinton had a famous campaign slogan in the 1990s: "It's the economy, stupid!" But in the post-Bernie Sanders Democratic Party, everyone has forgotten this. So, according to this model, Trump, though widely viewed as an underdog compared to Kamala, will win.
I am not sure whether I agree with this model, but I assert that, if this model is correct, then Trump will win.
