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Election 2024 Prediction: Update
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The time to make a prediction is before, not after, the event happens, so I feel the need to write this short article today, and not three days from now. Previously, I had predicted a Trump victory, but I would like to change my answer from "Trump" to "I don't know; either Trump or Kamala." I had predicted that Trump would win because inflation would be the overwhelming issue of this election. Early polling data indicates that Kamala has an issue, whose significance I had not previously appreciated, namely, abortion, and that the abortion issue for Kamala is an equal but opposite answer to inflation as a pro-Trump issue. The abortion issue is causing women to go to the polls to vote for Kamala. Trump is banking on his voter outreach to young men to counter Kamala's appeal to younger women; however, the problem Trump has is that women have an issue, abortion, to motivate them to vote, but Trump's aimless, alienated young male voter lacks a signature issue...
Election 2024 Predictions: Trump Will Probably Win, And Here's Why
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I recently learned of an interesting theory to predict the outcomes of presidential elections: that voters don't vote for the candidate, instead they vote for the party, but they don't vote for party along party loyalty lines, instead they vote for the party that they think will help them solve their current problems. According to this model, surprisingly, the candidate doesn't really matter, they are just a figurehead and a representative of the party and that party's broad principles and goals and abilities. And the basic idea is, when the economy is a problem, people vote Republican, because the Republicans will rein in spending and cut taxes, but when the economy is fine, people vote Democrat, because the Republicans won't let people have fun, but the Democrats will let people have fun, and when people have money all they want to do is have fun. There are ways for Democrats to win on the economy, but it is by means of, for example, as Bill Clinton did in the 199...
Thoughts on Gender and Gender-Neutrality
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Some men -- a lot of men -- seem to have a particular view of gender, namely, that women and queers have a gender, but men don't really have a gender, because being a man is the gender-neutral posture, it is the default, whereas being a woman is an active, positive gender, which comes with gender issues, and being queer is a gender, which also comes with gender issues, but if you're a man, and if you're a "normal" man, then you can exist without having to worry about gender issues because you have, or should have, no gender issues, since you have no "active" gender at all, you are the gender default. And I disagree with this view, and I regard the truth with respect to this matter to be objective and to apply to all genders, and to not revolve around the particular point of view of which gender you belong to. And my position is this: agender, which means, someone who has no gender (which is how I self-define) is the default, is the true gender-neutral po...
Update
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Some exciting news to share: (1) I have made Diamond rank in MtG Arena Ranked. I've been a hardcore gamer ever since the pandemic began, it's what I did to pass time while in lockdown, and this is the highest I have been in any seriously competitive ranked game. (2) After having been a vegetarian for 10 months (Sept 2023-July 2024), I am back to eating meat. It just felt like it was time. (3) I have joined the Democratic Party (gasp! shock!) No, I haven't become a socialist, I have not renounced my theory of economics, I'm just a conservative Democrat now. (There is no such thing as a libertarian Democrat, so obviously I can't be one, but there are conservative Democrats -- Senator Joe Manchin is one. If you look back at history over the past hundred years, there have been many famous conservative Democrats.) The local GOP in my area is very, very anti-trans, and since I have become public as being agender, I felt like the GOP not only didn't want me, but had so...
Duchess, Part 2
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In my last post I blogged about the Duchess chocolate cake. Today I would like to food blog about Duchess's eggplant parm. They do something really clever, instead of serving it on a hero wedge like most places do, they cut the eggplant into large round slices and deep fry it, then they put it in a hamburger bun and cover it with marinara sauce and melted mozzarella, and it's like a veggie burger but it's actually better than a veggie burger. And Duchess has two veggie burgers already on their menu, they have a Beyond burger and they also have a veggie burger that's sort of like a Praeger burger, but I've taken to ordering their eggplant parm instead of their veggie burger because it's such a good, clever vegetarian option, I'm amazed more people don't serve eggplant parm as a burger. It's delicious! But, if you don't live in Connecticut, you'll probably never eat at a Duchess. Alas!
I've fallen in love... with a slice of chocolate cake
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In Connecticut there is a fast food chain called Duchess which only exists in Connecticut, and I have fallen in love with this sort of chocolate cake pie that they make, if you are ever in Connecticut you must eat at Duchess, and if you eat at Duchess you must have their chocolate cake pie. It's basically chocolate cream pie but they make the pie crust with crumbled Oreo cookies and it's just divine. And normally, when I find food I love, I try it several times and eventually it gets boring and I move on, but I have been having one slice of this cake each day for the past week, and I'm not getting bored with it, it's so good that I discover new facets of its flavor profile each time I eat it. (Don't worry, I'm not gaining weight--my car broke down recently so I now walk as my primary mode of transportation, so I walk 2 miles a day and I've actually lost weight in the past week). I bought something at my local drug store today and the cashier said to me ...